Deterrence Deficit: Yemen’s Government in a Strategic Bind Amid Houthi Missile Threats

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In Yemen’s turbulent political landscape, the internationally recognized government faces escalating threats from the Houthis, who possess advanced ballistic missiles and sophisticated drone capabilities

Despite the clear and growing danger, the government lacks a coherent strategy to establish a robust deterrence framework

This absence of effective countermeasures leaves the government vulnerable, allowing the Houthis to leverage their technological advantage to dictate the terms of conflict escalation

A Message in MissilesOn December 30, 2020, as the newly formed Yemeni cabinet landed in Aden, a missile strike rocked the airport

A UN investigation later confirmed that the missiles were launched from Houthi-held territory

The message was unmistakable — the group could strike at any time, even at the heart of political power

Two years later, Houthi drones targeted oil export terminals in Hadramout and Shabwa, Yemen’s main economic lifelines

These were not symbolic attacks

They halted oil exports and crippled government revenue — delivering a psychological and economic blow with far-reaching consequences

The Tools Exist — But Are UnusedThe Yemeni government, supported by the Arab Coalition, has developed its own arsenal of drones and surveillance technology

It also enjoys growing diplomatic backing, and a network of allies with advanced military capabilities

However, these assets have largely been kept on standby

Military Deterrence: Potential Left DormantWhile the Houthis deploy Iranian-supplied drones like Qasef and Samad, government forces possess their own fleet of surveillance and limited-strike drones

Experts suggest these could be used for:Precision strikes on Houthi drone launch facilities in Saada and HodeidahElectronic warfare to jam navigation systems of incoming dronesJoint air-defense coordination with Saudi and Emirati forcesAs one former military advisor put it: “Deterrence doesn’t require superiority — it requires credibility

Right now, the government’s credibility is in question

”Economic Warfare: An Unopened FrontThe Houthis have also exploited their control of the central banking system in Sana’a to collect taxes and sustain illicit networks

The Yemeni Central Bank’s decision to relocate operations to Aden marked progress, but further actions are needed:Freeze accounts of banks aligned with Houthi authoritiesRestrict foreign currency inflows to Houthi-held areasCollaborate with international financial institutions to blacklist illicit networksAt the same time, the suspension of oil exports has deprived the government of critical revenue

Restoring these flows — under international protection — is essential

Resilience strategies include:Securing ports with air and naval defenseDiversifying export routes

Offering oil at competitive rates, supported by sovereign risk insuransThe Western Role: A Strategic InvestmentBeyond the Arab Coalition, Western powers — particularly the United States and key European countries — could play a decisive role

By supplying the Yemeni government with modern air defense systems, counter-drone technology, and training in strategic deterrence, the West would not only stabilize Yemen, but also protect broader interests

Shipping through the Red Sea, counterterrorism operations, and efforts to contain Iranian influence all hinge on a stronger, more self-reliant Yemeni state

A Choice — Not a CoincidenceThe Houthis have succeeded not because they are stronger, but because they act

The Yemeni government, by contrast, remains caught between caution and inaction

Unless it embraces a policy of smart deterrence — one that integrates military capabilities, economic strategy, and international partnerships — it risks becoming irrelevant in the very conflict it is meant to lead

SourcesUN Report on Aden Airport Attack – AlhurraDrone Strikes on Dhabba Port – Al-MushahidShabwa Port Attacks – Al-EstiklalEconomic Impact Analysis – Sana’a Center for Strategic StudiesHouthi Infrastructure Targeting – Independent Arabia